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Sweden’s NATO Bid (still) Navigates Uncertain Waters
Sweden’s historical shift toward joining NATO, fueled by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, faces a complex and uncertain path. Turkey still presents hurdles on the road to alliance integration. Moreover, Hungary’s Viktor Orbán makes it even more challenging. Internal Considerations: Sweden’s long-standing policy of neutrality is deeply ingrained in its national identity. Public opinion polls conducted by Aftonbladet and SVT show a rising tide of support for NATO membership, currently hovering around 60%. However, a significant minority remains hesitant, citing concerns about potential militarization, increased tensions with Russia, and the implications for regional security dynamics. The Swedish Social Democratic Party, traditionally… Read full article
Summary
As a consequence of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Sweden has shifted its stance as a neutral power and has been seeking membership in NATO since May 2022. It is necessary for all member states to approve new members to join. Since the application date, both Turkey and Hungary have been against Swedish approval. At present, Turkey has accepted Sweden’s membership, and only Hungary is still against it. It seems plausible that Sweden will become a NATO member by April 2024 at the latest.
Timeline
- 2022:
- February 24: Russia invades Ukraine, prompting major shifts in European security dynamics.
- May 12: Finland announces its intention to join NATO, triggering similar discussions within Sweden.
- May 15: The Swedish Social Democratic Party, traditionally opposed to NATO, reverses its stance, paving the way for a joint application with Finland.
- May 18: Sweden and Finland formally submit their applications to join NATO.
- June 29: At the NATO Madrid Summit, all member states except Turkey and Hungary invite Sweden and Finland to join the alliance.
- July 5: All NATO member states except Hungary sign the Accession Protocols for Finland and Sweden.
- 2023:
- March 8: The Swedish government submits the bill on NATO membership to the Riksdag for approval.
- March 22: The Riksdag approves Sweden’s accession to NATO.
- June 29-30: 28 of NATO’s 30 member countries ratify the Accession Protocols for Finland and Sweden. Turkey and Hungary remain holdouts.
- December 14: A tripartite memorandum is signed between Sweden, Finland, and Turkey, addressing some Turkish concerns, but ratification remains pending.
- 2024 (to date):
- February 3: Negotiations between Sweden, Finland, and Turkey continue.
- February 4: Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán suggests he might consider delaying ratification until after Hungary’s national elections in April.
- Ongoing:
- Sweden and Finland continue to fulfill the requirements outlined in the tripartite memorandum.
- Negotiations with Turkey to address all outstanding concerns are ongoing.
- Hungary’s final decision on ratification remains pending, potentially influenced by domestic political considerations and broader geopolitical factors.
